American Way: It's Heavy Vetting Time for Veep

Fevered speculation is growing in the US political world over picks for candidates for vice president

Mitt Romney is known to be a cautious and constitutionally conservative man 

"The Vice-Presidency isn't worth a bucket of warm spit," famously said John Nance Garner, the first Vice President of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

But despite this non-endorsement of the office, we are now in heavy vetting season, where speculation about who Republican nominee Mitt Romney might pick for VP is a favourite political parlour game.

His selection will be the first in the post-Sarah Palin era, and she casts a long shadow over the process. While beloved by the Tea Party base, Palin still hasn't been invited to speak at the Republican Convention by the Romney campaign. That's because her nomination is increasingly recognised as an embarrassing mistake, even by some conservatives who dutifully defended her during the 2008 campaign.

The polarising impact of that Palin pick makes it far less likely that Romney will tap an untested "game changer" like freshman Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio would be a bold pick, a bid to build support among Latinos and the millennial generation. Additionally, Rubio might tip the scales in the critical swing state of Florida. But post-Palin, Rubio's vulnerabilities outweigh the positives. He has been in the US Senate less than two years, the same amount of time that Palin served as Alaska Governor before being nominated.

His experience is limited to the Florida statehouse, a place of local influence but also the source of periodic scandals. Post-Palin, a lack of national experience is not an asset.

Mitt Romney is known to be a cautious and constitutionally conservative man.
Big personalities like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – who is credibly rumoured to be the keynote speaker at the Republican Convention – are not his cup of tea.
High-profile trial balloons, like the much-ballyhooed "Condi Rice for VP" story leaked to the DrudgeReport website, were thinly-veiled attempts to change the conversation from Romney's refusal to release more than two years of tax returns.
Such a story also gives the appearance of commitment to diversity, but hours after the VP Condi story was floated, social conservatives attacked, reminding Romney that a pro-choice nominee like the former secretary of state would be DOA at the convention.
Other Republican rising stars like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan are more credibly being vetted, but contain risks rooted in policy specifics that delight conservatives but could ultimately alienate centrist swing voters.
So Romney seems likely to go for a VP-pick who will follow the doctor's mantra: first, do no harm. Conventional wisdom is settling on two top tier VP candidates: Ohio Senator Rob Portman and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.
Portman has the advantage of hailing from a must-win swing state: Ohio. He is solid, steady and experienced with a background of government experience focused on economic issues – the core message on which Romney wants to campaign. But Portman has a two-fold downside. First, he was President George W.Bush's budget director - so if Romney picked him, he would be forced to account for the unpopular economic policies of the last Republican administration.
Second, Portman's extensive Washington experience includes a stint at a powerful lobbying law firm, some of whose clients were overseas - a combination that could compound Romney's problems connecting to middle class voters.
And so Pawlenty's stock is rising. He was considered a leading VP-possibility for John McCain in 2008, before the Arizona Senator chose Palin - and Pawlenty pursued his own (brief) presidential bid this time around before dropping out and endorsing Romney. So the two-term governor of a Democratic-leaning state has been thoroughly vetted.
Best of all, from the Romney campaign's perspective, Pawlenty's blue collar biography helpfully contrasts with their man's privileged background. He grew up poor - his father was a milk-man - and his rise confirms the endurance of the American Dream.
He is an evangelical, which comforts the social conservative base. And from the Team Romney perspective, the prospect of two Republican governors of normally Democrat states on the ticket sends a welcoming message to moderate voters.
Neither Portman nor Pawlenty are dynamic, charismatic figures. Their selection would show Romney playing it safe, for better or worse - offering voters the equivalent of a white bread sandwich.
As Sarah Palin showed, VP picks do matter. They are a nominee's first presidential level decision and offer enduring insight into their judgment.
Strong picks can balance out a candidate's political profile (remember Ronald Reagan's selection of the comparatively centrist George HW Bush) or help win an election by carrying their home state (as LBJ did for John F Kennedy by swinging Texas into the Democratic column in 1960).
Most of all, they matter because nine vice-presidents suddenly became president themselves, including greats like Theodore Roosevelt and Harry S Truman. What may seem like a "bucket of warm spit" can become a bully pulpit with the ability to make history, overnight.