The
president leads Romney 66%-25% among more than 1,000 Latino registered
voters surveyed April 16 to May 31, matching his muscular showing in the
2008 election among Hispanics. Romney is in the weakest position among
Latinos of any presidential contender since 1996 — and in those
intervening 16 years their percentage of the electorate has doubled.
Since
the poll was taken, Obama has fortified Hispanic enthusiasm by
announcing he would block the deportation of an estimated 800,000
undocumented young Latinos who were brought to the United States
as children. In a subsequent USA TODAY/Gallup survey, taken
Wednesday-Saturday, more than eight in 10 Latinos approved of the
president's action, most of them strongly.
"I've
seen that affect a lot of families, so that's actually something I'm
pretty much in favor of," says Jonny Rozyla, 22, a college student from
Anoka, Minn., a poll respondent who was interviewed by phone. His
mother was born in the United States and his father emigrated from
Mexico. Rozyla says he "strongly disagrees" with Romney's statements
about a controversial Arizona immigration law. "I don't think he's for
the people, mostly," he says of Romney. "He's more for the rich than the
poor."
Romney's troubles with Hispanic voters
are likely to be spotlighted this week if the Supreme Court, as
expected, rules on the constitutionality of the Arizona law, which
requires police to check a person's immigration status when there is
reasonable doubt about it.
During the GOP
primaries, Romney endorsed the right of Arizona and other states to
pass laws on immigration. And in recent days, he has sidestepped
questions about whether he would overturn Obama's action blocking some
deportations.
In
a positive sign for the GOP over the long term, the poll finds a
generational shift among Latinos that could open the door for
Republicans as this immigrant group, like the ones that went before it,
deepens its roots in the United States. But for the next four months of
this election year, Romney's path is steeply uphill.
"He has the most conservative position on immigration reform of any nominee of our lifetime," Obama campaign manager Jim Messina
says. "It's not the only issue Latino voters care about, but it is an
important issue that shows people whose side they are on, and it's clear
that Mitt Romney's against them."
Romney campaign pollster Neil Newhouse says the economy is the top issue for Latinos, as for other voters.
"President
Obama's last-minute pandering to Hispanics can't make up for his record
of failed policies that have resulted in Hispanics comprising fully
one-third of Americans who are living in poverty," Newhouse says. "Once
Hispanic voters realize the president's broken promises to their
community, Gov. Romney will win more than his share of their votes. This
is why our campaign has been ramping up efforts to get our message to
Americans of Hispanic descent."
On Friday, Romney announced Hispanic "Juntos con
Romney" ("Together with Romney") teams in 15 states, and his campaign
has begun airing more TV and radio ads on Spanish-language stations. In
a speech to a convention of Hispanic officials in Orlando on Thursday,
he took a softer tone on immigration than he had when battling for
the Republican nomination.
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